💥 SPECIAL SYRIA _ The Syrian War Is Actually Many Wars
Krishnadev
Calamur, The Atlantic, Apr 13, 2018
President
Donald Trump is ordering U.S. strikes against government targets in Syria after
a suspected chemical attack.
Donald Trump is ordering U.S. strikes against government targets in Syria after
a suspected chemical attack.
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Reuters /
Khalil Ashawi |
The
Middle East is a “troubled place,” President Donald Trump said Friday night as
he described his decision to use America’s “righteous power” in a retaliatory
attack against government targets in Syria following a suspected chemical
attack there.
Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad seems to have won the civil war in his country—but that doesn’t
mean peace is coming. In fact, the conflict seems to be escalating—fueled by
the many outside powers who have joined the Syrian battlefield with interests
of their own.
Bashar al-Assad seems to have won the civil war in his country—but that doesn’t
mean peace is coming. In fact, the conflict seems to be escalating—fueled by
the many outside powers who have joined the Syrian battlefield with interests
of their own.
“If you
look at the literature on civil wars, it tends to suggest that the more foreign
powers involved, the more difficult it is for a civil war to end—because most
of those powers aren’t willing to quit until either they are exhausted or their
claims and desires have been met,” said Christopher Phillips, author of the
book The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. “And
because a lot of them are backing proxies, the cost isn’t necessarily that
high.”
look at the literature on civil wars, it tends to suggest that the more foreign
powers involved, the more difficult it is for a civil war to end—because most
of those powers aren’t willing to quit until either they are exhausted or their
claims and desires have been met,” said Christopher Phillips, author of the
book The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. “And
because a lot of them are backing proxies, the cost isn’t necessarily that
high.”
Over the
seven years of Syria’s war, it has sucked in numerous other countries, who have
attempted to shape the conflict with every tool from bombing to mercenaries to
special operators to weapons shipments to money. The war has grown ever more
complicated and more deadly over time, and Syria’s future is now largely being
determined outside of its borders. Who is fighting in Syria now, and why?
seven years of Syria’s war, it has sucked in numerous other countries, who have
attempted to shape the conflict with every tool from bombing to mercenaries to
special operators to weapons shipments to money. The war has grown ever more
complicated and more deadly over time, and Syria’s future is now largely being
determined outside of its borders. Who is fighting in Syria now, and why?
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SANA /
Mikhail Klimentyev / Reuters / The Atlantic
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The
United States of America
The
United States is in Syria mainly because of ISIS. At a recent event in
Washington, the U.S. envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition Brett McGurk spelled this out:
“We are in Syria to fight ISIS. That is our mission and our mission isn’t over,
and we’re going to complete that mission.” More recently, Secretary of Defense
James Mattis told Congress that the United States was not there to take sides
in the broader civil war.
United States is in Syria mainly because of ISIS. At a recent event in
Washington, the U.S. envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition Brett McGurk spelled this out:
“We are in Syria to fight ISIS. That is our mission and our mission isn’t over,
and we’re going to complete that mission.” More recently, Secretary of Defense
James Mattis told Congress that the United States was not there to take sides
in the broader civil war.
But it is
also pursuing other interests there—including containing Iran’s influence, and
also punishing the use of chemical weapons. “The United States has … pursued
[its interests] with different importance in different emphasis at different
times,” Phillips said. “And that’s one of the reasons why U.S. policy has been
largely unsuccessful.”
also pursuing other interests there—including containing Iran’s influence, and
also punishing the use of chemical weapons. “The United States has … pursued
[its interests] with different importance in different emphasis at different
times,” Phillips said. “And that’s one of the reasons why U.S. policy has been
largely unsuccessful.”
Prior to
the rise of ISIS in 2014, the United States generally sought to contain the
conflict, as efforts at international diplomacy failed to resolve it. The Obama
administration advocated for Assad to step aside, but was reluctant to send
weapons or funds to the rebels opposing him, out of fear that they would fall
into the hands of Islamists and radical jihadists among them. In 2012, Obama
also famously set a “red line” regarding chemical weapons, saying that their
use would change his calculus on U.S. strategy there. But when Assad used sarin
gas on civilians in 2013, Obama opted, instead of using force, for an agreement
with Russia to destroy Assad’s stockpiles of chemical weapons. The U.S. started
bombing Syria for the first
time a year later, hitting not regime targets but targets associated
with ISIS. It has continued bombing ever since.
the rise of ISIS in 2014, the United States generally sought to contain the
conflict, as efforts at international diplomacy failed to resolve it. The Obama
administration advocated for Assad to step aside, but was reluctant to send
weapons or funds to the rebels opposing him, out of fear that they would fall
into the hands of Islamists and radical jihadists among them. In 2012, Obama
also famously set a “red line” regarding chemical weapons, saying that their
use would change his calculus on U.S. strategy there. But when Assad used sarin
gas on civilians in 2013, Obama opted, instead of using force, for an agreement
with Russia to destroy Assad’s stockpiles of chemical weapons. The U.S. started
bombing Syria for the first
time a year later, hitting not regime targets but targets associated
with ISIS. It has continued bombing ever since.
President
Trump recently said the U.S. would leave Syria “very soon”—even as his military
advisers were planning to send additional troops. By the time he spoke, the
U.S. presence in the country had grown to some 2,000 troops; news reports say
Trump wants them out within six months.
Trump recently said the U.S. would leave Syria “very soon”—even as his military
advisers were planning to send additional troops. By the time he spoke, the
U.S. presence in the country had grown to some 2,000 troops; news reports say
Trump wants them out within six months.
Then came
the suspected chemical attack of last weekend, to which Trump retaliated with
strikes against the regime, as he did to a similar attack last year. This means
the United States has once again expanded its mission beyond counterterrorism.
the suspected chemical attack of last weekend, to which Trump retaliated with
strikes against the regime, as he did to a similar attack last year. This means
the United States has once again expanded its mission beyond counterterrorism.
Europe
European
countries like France and Britain are also in Syria because of ISIS. These
countries’ policies have hewed largely to those of the United States—including,
for the first time on Friday, participating in retaliatory attacks against
Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons—though the difference is that Europe is
also grappling with the refugee crisis Syria has produced. The crisis has
altered political dynamics on the continent, helping fuel electoral successes
for far-right parties that oppose immigration.
countries like France and Britain are also in Syria because of ISIS. These
countries’ policies have hewed largely to those of the United States—including,
for the first time on Friday, participating in retaliatory attacks against
Assad’s alleged use of chemical weapons—though the difference is that Europe is
also grappling with the refugee crisis Syria has produced. The crisis has
altered political dynamics on the continent, helping fuel electoral successes
for far-right parties that oppose immigration.
“To face
these threats, what we need is to stabilize Syria, and to stabilize we need a
credible political transition,” Gérard Araud, the French ambassador to
Washington, said this week. “The goal of the West should be political
engagement with Russia, Turkey, [and] Iran with a view of political
transition.” Both France and the U.K. joined the U.S. military action against
Assad’s latest alleged use of chemical weapons.
these threats, what we need is to stabilize Syria, and to stabilize we need a
credible political transition,” Gérard Araud, the French ambassador to
Washington, said this week. “The goal of the West should be political
engagement with Russia, Turkey, [and] Iran with a view of political
transition.” Both France and the U.K. joined the U.S. military action against
Assad’s latest alleged use of chemical weapons.
Russia
Russia is
in Syria to protect the Assad regime from rebels it sees as terrorists, and
project influence in the Middle East. Its military intervention in September
2015 ensured Assad would not only reverse his losses, but regain much of Syria.
America’s scattershot approach to Syrian policy helped, as did the metastatic
spread of ISIS that created a common enemy for both the pro- and anti-Assad
camps.
in Syria to protect the Assad regime from rebels it sees as terrorists, and
project influence in the Middle East. Its military intervention in September
2015 ensured Assad would not only reverse his losses, but regain much of Syria.
America’s scattershot approach to Syrian policy helped, as did the metastatic
spread of ISIS that created a common enemy for both the pro- and anti-Assad
camps.
Russia’s
relations with the Syrian regime date back to the Cold War. Syria is home to
the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean (in Tartous). But those
considerations aside, Russia is also genuinely concerned about the growth of
Islamist groups that have emerged in other Arab countries where a strongman has
been replaced by chaos. Perhaps most important from its point of view, though,
is that the Syrian conflict shows the world that Russia is back.
relations with the Syrian regime date back to the Cold War. Syria is home to
the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean (in Tartous). But those
considerations aside, Russia is also genuinely concerned about the growth of
Islamist groups that have emerged in other Arab countries where a strongman has
been replaced by chaos. Perhaps most important from its point of view, though,
is that the Syrian conflict shows the world that Russia is back.
“It’s
very important for [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to use Syria as a
platform to project Russian power—and give the impression that just as the
Soviet Union was a major player in the Middle East, so is post-Soviet Russia,”
Phillips said.
very important for [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to use Syria as a
platform to project Russian power—and give the impression that just as the
Soviet Union was a major player in the Middle East, so is post-Soviet Russia,”
Phillips said.
Indeed,
if there is an indispensable power in Syria it is Russia. Moscow has close
relations with virtually all of the major actors in the conflict except the
United States: Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Israel. It is playing an increasing
role in brokering some kind of an understanding between Israel and Iran on what
type of Iranian presence in Syria Israel will tolerate, Ofer Zalzberg, a senior
analyst for Israel/Palestine at the International Crisis Group, told me. “My
analysis is that the more these incidents [in which Israel responds inside Syria
with its military to Iranian actions] will become frequent … Russia
[will move] into an increasingly active position,” he said. It is not clear,
though, that Russia has the influence to persuade Assad to stop using chemical
weapons on his own people.
if there is an indispensable power in Syria it is Russia. Moscow has close
relations with virtually all of the major actors in the conflict except the
United States: Iran, Syria, Turkey, and Israel. It is playing an increasing
role in brokering some kind of an understanding between Israel and Iran on what
type of Iranian presence in Syria Israel will tolerate, Ofer Zalzberg, a senior
analyst for Israel/Palestine at the International Crisis Group, told me. “My
analysis is that the more these incidents [in which Israel responds inside Syria
with its military to Iranian actions] will become frequent … Russia
[will move] into an increasingly active position,” he said. It is not clear,
though, that Russia has the influence to persuade Assad to stop using chemical
weapons on his own people.
Iran
Iran is
in Syria to protect the Assad regime, and also to use its proxies to menace its
archenemy Israel from a neighboring country. Syria has been an Iranian ally
since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, and was the only Arab state to support
Iran during its brutal war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. But loyalty
aside, Syria also is of strategic value to Iran, because it acts as a buffer
against any military action by Israel or others from its west, as well as an
outpost through which it can arm and supply Hezbollah to put pressure on Israel
and contain its military actions in the region.
in Syria to protect the Assad regime, and also to use its proxies to menace its
archenemy Israel from a neighboring country. Syria has been an Iranian ally
since Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, and was the only Arab state to support
Iran during its brutal war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. But loyalty
aside, Syria also is of strategic value to Iran, because it acts as a buffer
against any military action by Israel or others from its west, as well as an
outpost through which it can arm and supply Hezbollah to put pressure on Israel
and contain its military actions in the region.
“[Iran]
concluded very early on in the uprising in Syria that it must stand by Assad
and it must stand by the regime,” Phillips said. Iran, along with Syria’s other
neighbors, both allies and adversaries, will have to deal with the consequences
of the conflict long after the West and Moscow find themselves preoccupied with
other crises.
concluded very early on in the uprising in Syria that it must stand by Assad
and it must stand by the regime,” Phillips said. Iran, along with Syria’s other
neighbors, both allies and adversaries, will have to deal with the consequences
of the conflict long after the West and Moscow find themselves preoccupied with
other crises.
Saudi
Arabia
Arabia
Saudi
Arabia is in Syria—primarily by financing the rebellion—to oppose Iran. It
funded the Syrian opposition precisely because Iran, its main regional rival,
had dug in. In the rebellion against Assad’s minority sect by Saudi Arabia’s
Sunni coreligionists, Saudi Arabia saw an opportunity to turn Syria from a
pro-Iranian state into a not-pro-Iranian state. Turkey and Qatar, too, saw in
the uprising an opportunity to transform Syria into a friendlier state, and
funded groups with links to the Muslim Brotherhood. Mohammed bin Abdulrahman
al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, told reporters in Washington Thursday that
Assad was a “war criminal” who “deserves to be prosecuted.” He called for a
diplomatic process that would lead to a power transition—an idea that has
repeatedly been floated, but which Assad, who has won back much of the country,
doesn’t have much incentive to pursue.
Arabia is in Syria—primarily by financing the rebellion—to oppose Iran. It
funded the Syrian opposition precisely because Iran, its main regional rival,
had dug in. In the rebellion against Assad’s minority sect by Saudi Arabia’s
Sunni coreligionists, Saudi Arabia saw an opportunity to turn Syria from a
pro-Iranian state into a not-pro-Iranian state. Turkey and Qatar, too, saw in
the uprising an opportunity to transform Syria into a friendlier state, and
funded groups with links to the Muslim Brotherhood. Mohammed bin Abdulrahman
al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, told reporters in Washington Thursday that
Assad was a “war criminal” who “deserves to be prosecuted.” He called for a
diplomatic process that would lead to a power transition—an idea that has
repeatedly been floated, but which Assad, who has won back much of the country,
doesn’t have much incentive to pursue.
Israel
Israel is
in Syria to oppose Iran. For years, its border with Syria was its quietest
frontier—despite its poor relationship with Assad and his father, Hafez
al-Assad. But Israel has watched Iran’s growing influence there with alarm. It
fears Tehran will establish permanent military bases inside Syria, and that
Iran, along with its militia Hezbollah, will remain near the border with Israel
and construct offensive capabilities such as bunkers that can be used in a
future conflict with the Jewish state. Israel has struck inside Syria dozens of
times during the conflict, most recently on Monday when it attacked a military
base where Iran and its proxies are active.
in Syria to oppose Iran. For years, its border with Syria was its quietest
frontier—despite its poor relationship with Assad and his father, Hafez
al-Assad. But Israel has watched Iran’s growing influence there with alarm. It
fears Tehran will establish permanent military bases inside Syria, and that
Iran, along with its militia Hezbollah, will remain near the border with Israel
and construct offensive capabilities such as bunkers that can be used in a
future conflict with the Jewish state. Israel has struck inside Syria dozens of
times during the conflict, most recently on Monday when it attacked a military
base where Iran and its proxies are active.
Zalzberg,
the analyst at the International Crisis Group, told me that until a few months
ago, Israel still hoped that either the Trump administration or Saudi Arabia
would succeed in rolling back the Iranian presence from Syria. Israel could
have accepted Assad remaining in power, he said, if it hadn’t been accompanied
by Iran’s presence inside the country. What Israel should do to respond to this
threat is a matter of great internal debate, Zalzberg said, with options
ranging from the limited strikes it is conducting to all-out war. But, he said,
“This will be a war that involves not only Syria, not only the Syrian army and
its forces,” but also Iran, Hezbollah, and others.
the analyst at the International Crisis Group, told me that until a few months
ago, Israel still hoped that either the Trump administration or Saudi Arabia
would succeed in rolling back the Iranian presence from Syria. Israel could
have accepted Assad remaining in power, he said, if it hadn’t been accompanied
by Iran’s presence inside the country. What Israel should do to respond to this
threat is a matter of great internal debate, Zalzberg said, with options
ranging from the limited strikes it is conducting to all-out war. But, he said,
“This will be a war that involves not only Syria, not only the Syrian army and
its forces,” but also Iran, Hezbollah, and others.
Turkey
Turkey is
in Syria because of the Kurds. At the start of the conflict, Ankara strongly
opposed Assad, who was previously a close Turkish ally. Turkey supported groups
opposed to Assad, including Islamists. But one unintended consequence of the
Syrian conflict—and as well as the war in Iraq—was the rise of the Kurds. They
quickly became one of the most effective fighting forces in Syria, helping the
U.S. in the successful fight against ISIS. Some of the Syrian Kurds are allied
with the Kurdistan Workers Party, a group that operates inside Turkey and which
Ankara regards as a terrorist organization. When the Kurds established a
successful enclave in Syria, Turkey quickly sent its troops across the border
and seized the town of Afrin, which is west of the Euphrates River where Russia
has control. It has also threatened the town of Manbij, where U.S. troops are
present along with Kurdish fighters. For now, Turkey seems to have traded its
opposition to Assad with its antipathy toward the Kurds.
in Syria because of the Kurds. At the start of the conflict, Ankara strongly
opposed Assad, who was previously a close Turkish ally. Turkey supported groups
opposed to Assad, including Islamists. But one unintended consequence of the
Syrian conflict—and as well as the war in Iraq—was the rise of the Kurds. They
quickly became one of the most effective fighting forces in Syria, helping the
U.S. in the successful fight against ISIS. Some of the Syrian Kurds are allied
with the Kurdistan Workers Party, a group that operates inside Turkey and which
Ankara regards as a terrorist organization. When the Kurds established a
successful enclave in Syria, Turkey quickly sent its troops across the border
and seized the town of Afrin, which is west of the Euphrates River where Russia
has control. It has also threatened the town of Manbij, where U.S. troops are
present along with Kurdish fighters. For now, Turkey seems to have traded its
opposition to Assad with its antipathy toward the Kurds.
These are
only the international powers in Syria; this analysis doesn’t even account for
the various factions among the opposition and within the regime. But it’s the
outside powers who will determine the next phase. And regardless, the Syrian
people will pay most of the cost.
only the international powers in Syria; this analysis doesn’t even account for
the various factions among the opposition and within the regime. But it’s the
outside powers who will determine the next phase. And regardless, the Syrian
people will pay most of the cost.
“Even if
the war ends,” Phillips said. “Syria will be unstable for quite some time.”
