Raul Castro leaves Cuba with new freedoms, deep problems
The Mainichi, April 16, 2018
In 2008
Raul Castro took over a country where most people couldn’t own computers or
cellphones, leave without permission, run most types of private businesses or
enter resort hotels.
Raul Castro took over a country where most people couldn’t own computers or
cellphones, leave without permission, run most types of private businesses or
enter resort hotels.
 |
|
In this
Jan. 28, 2018 file photo, Cuba’s President Raul Castro looks at his watch
as he
walks with Cuba’s Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez, right,
and
National Assembly of People’s Power President Esteban Lazo Hernandez, left,
to
the unveiling of a replica of a statue of Cuba’s independence hero
Jose Marti
in Havana, Cuba. (AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa, File) |
HAVANA
(AP) – Castro set about re-engineering the system he had helped create and
Cuba opened dramatically over his decade in office. But when Castro steps down
as president Thursday he will leave his successor a host of problems that are
deeper than on the day his brother Fidel formally handed over power.
(AP) – Castro set about re-engineering the system he had helped create and
Cuba opened dramatically over his decade in office. But when Castro steps down
as president Thursday he will leave his successor a host of problems that are
deeper than on the day his brother Fidel formally handed over power.
Cuba has
nearly 600,000 private entrepreneurs, more than 5 million cellphones, a
bustling real estate market and one of the world’s fastest-growing airports.
Foreign debt has been paid. Tourism numbers have more than doubled since Castro
and President Barack Obama re-established diplomatic relations in 2015, making
Cuba a destination for nearly 5 million visitors a year, despite a plunge in
relations under the Trump administration.
nearly 600,000 private entrepreneurs, more than 5 million cellphones, a
bustling real estate market and one of the world’s fastest-growing airports.
Foreign debt has been paid. Tourism numbers have more than doubled since Castro
and President Barack Obama re-established diplomatic relations in 2015, making
Cuba a destination for nearly 5 million visitors a year, despite a plunge in
relations under the Trump administration.
On the
other side of the ledger, Cuba’s Soviet-style command economy still employs
three of every four Cuban workers but produces little. Private sector growth
has been largely frozen. The average monthly state salary is $31 — so low that
workers often live on stolen goods and handouts from relatives overseas.
Foreign investment remains anemic. The island’s infrastructure is falling
deeper into disrepair. The break with Washington dashed dreams of detente with
the U.S., and after two decades of getting Venezuelan subsidies totaling more
than $6 billion a year, Cuba’s patron has collapsed economically with no
replacement in the wings.
other side of the ledger, Cuba’s Soviet-style command economy still employs
three of every four Cuban workers but produces little. Private sector growth
has been largely frozen. The average monthly state salary is $31 — so low that
workers often live on stolen goods and handouts from relatives overseas.
Foreign investment remains anemic. The island’s infrastructure is falling
deeper into disrepair. The break with Washington dashed dreams of detente with
the U.S., and after two decades of getting Venezuelan subsidies totaling more
than $6 billion a year, Cuba’s patron has collapsed economically with no
replacement in the wings.
Castro’s
inability or unwillingness to fix Cuba’s structural problems with deep and
wide-ranging reforms has many wondering how a successor without Castro’s
founding father credentials will manage the country over the next five or 10
years.
inability or unwillingness to fix Cuba’s structural problems with deep and
wide-ranging reforms has many wondering how a successor without Castro’s
founding father credentials will manage the country over the next five or 10
years.
“People
in Cuba really haven’t processed yet what it means to have a government without
Raul or Fidel leading it,” said Yassel Padron Kunakbaeva, a prolific
27-year-old blogger who writes frequently from what he describes as a Marxist,
revolutionary perspective. “We’re entering unknown territory.”
in Cuba really haven’t processed yet what it means to have a government without
Raul or Fidel leading it,” said Yassel Padron Kunakbaeva, a prolific
27-year-old blogger who writes frequently from what he describes as a Marxist,
revolutionary perspective. “We’re entering unknown territory.”
Tens of
thousands of highly educated professionals are abandoning the island each year,
leaving Cuba with the combination of third-world economy and the demographics
of a graying European nation. After a 2016 recession, Cuba said growth was 1.6
percent last year, although official accounts remain opaque and questioned by
experts. The single-party government controls virtually all forms of expression
and organization, with near-zero tolerance of public criticism or dissent. The
mood on the street is pessimistic, with few expecting a better future anytime
soon.
thousands of highly educated professionals are abandoning the island each year,
leaving Cuba with the combination of third-world economy and the demographics
of a graying European nation. After a 2016 recession, Cuba said growth was 1.6
percent last year, although official accounts remain opaque and questioned by
experts. The single-party government controls virtually all forms of expression
and organization, with near-zero tolerance of public criticism or dissent. The
mood on the street is pessimistic, with few expecting a better future anytime
soon.
“The
political future of whoever takes over in April depends on the economic
question,” said Jose Raul Viera Linares, a former first deputy minister of
foreign affairs. “It’s the possibility for young people to dream, to
design their own future. That’s all based in the material wealth that this
country is able to achieve.”
political future of whoever takes over in April depends on the economic
question,” said Jose Raul Viera Linares, a former first deputy minister of
foreign affairs. “It’s the possibility for young people to dream, to
design their own future. That’s all based in the material wealth that this
country is able to achieve.”
The
greatest immediate challenge for Castro’s expected successor — 57-year-old
Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez — is unwinding a byzantine
dual-currency system featuring one type of Cuban peso worth 4 cents and another
that is nearly a dollar. The system was designed to insulate a state-run,
egalitarian internal market using “national money” from trade with
the outside world denominated in “convertible pesos.”
greatest immediate challenge for Castro’s expected successor — 57-year-old
Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel Bermudez — is unwinding a byzantine
dual-currency system featuring one type of Cuban peso worth 4 cents and another
that is nearly a dollar. The system was designed to insulate a state-run,
egalitarian internal market using “national money” from trade with
the outside world denominated in “convertible pesos.”
The
barrier between the two worlds swiftly collapsed and the system has fostered
big economic distortions. Inefficient state enterprises receive mammoth
subsidies by obtaining expensive convertible pesos for the price of the cheaper
barrier between the two worlds swiftly collapsed and the system has fostered
big economic distortions. Inefficient state enterprises receive mammoth
subsidies by obtaining expensive convertible pesos for the price of the cheaper
“Cuban
peso.” The dual-currency system also allows private businesses to receive
subsidized goods and services like water and electricity in Cuban pesos, then
turn around and charge their relatively wealthy clients in convertible pesos at
a significant profit.
peso.” The dual-currency system also allows private businesses to receive
subsidized goods and services like water and electricity in Cuban pesos, then
turn around and charge their relatively wealthy clients in convertible pesos at
a significant profit.
Castro
called for elimination of the dual currencies from the beginning of his
presidency, but never got around to it. In one of his final speeches last year
he called once again for the system’s urgent elimination, a process that many
expect to start in Diaz-Canel’s first year in power. Eliminating dual currency
is widely seen as necessary for Cuba’s economy to grow, but it carries risks of
inflation and major disruption for inefficient state businesses whose
subsidized balance sheets will finally become understandable when they are
denominated in a single currency.
called for elimination of the dual currencies from the beginning of his
presidency, but never got around to it. In one of his final speeches last year
he called once again for the system’s urgent elimination, a process that many
expect to start in Diaz-Canel’s first year in power. Eliminating dual currency
is widely seen as necessary for Cuba’s economy to grow, but it carries risks of
inflation and major disruption for inefficient state businesses whose
subsidized balance sheets will finally become understandable when they are
denominated in a single currency.
Those
state businesses gained new competitors as Castro expanded the space for
capitalism in the Cuban economy by permitting private enterprise in dozens of
fields ranging from agriculture to hospitality to construction.
state businesses gained new competitors as Castro expanded the space for
capitalism in the Cuban economy by permitting private enterprise in dozens of
fields ranging from agriculture to hospitality to construction.
“We’ve
risen up economically. The new possibilities have changed my life, of
course,” said Yanelis Garcia, a 44-year-old mother of three who saved
money from raising pigs in her backyard to slowly build a prosperous six-room
bed-and-breakfast and taxi business in the central city of Santa Clara.
“I’ve always liked having my own business to be able to provide for my
family. It’s been really good.”
risen up economically. The new possibilities have changed my life, of
course,” said Yanelis Garcia, a 44-year-old mother of three who saved
money from raising pigs in her backyard to slowly build a prosperous six-room
bed-and-breakfast and taxi business in the central city of Santa Clara.
“I’ve always liked having my own business to be able to provide for my
family. It’s been really good.”
Cubans
fill thousands of flights a year to Miami, Panama and Cancun, where they cram
duffel bags with gym socks and Xboxes for the vibrant private sector and rising
middle class. But last August, the Cuban government froze new licenses for
private bed-and-breakfasts, restaurants and other popular businesses, leaving
many Cubans questioning how their government envisions a path to prosperity.
fill thousands of flights a year to Miami, Panama and Cancun, where they cram
duffel bags with gym socks and Xboxes for the vibrant private sector and rising
middle class. But last August, the Cuban government froze new licenses for
private bed-and-breakfasts, restaurants and other popular businesses, leaving
many Cubans questioning how their government envisions a path to prosperity.
“We’ve
seen necessary reforms and I think that in the future there will have to be
more,” said Norma Chiang, a 77-year-old state accountant and auditor.
“Self-employment needs to be broadened, little things like bakeries or
food stands that can be in the hands of individuals and not the state.”
seen necessary reforms and I think that in the future there will have to be
more,” said Norma Chiang, a 77-year-old state accountant and auditor.
“Self-employment needs to be broadened, little things like bakeries or
food stands that can be in the hands of individuals and not the state.”
Despite
the image of Raul Castro as an all-powerful military strongman, many Cubans say
back-and-forth moves and the overall slow pace of reform have shown the
difficulty of modernizing a Soviet-era bureaucracy controlled by hundreds of
thousands of civil servants who would be threatened by a transition into a
market economy, a difficulty Castro’s successor will also face.
the image of Raul Castro as an all-powerful military strongman, many Cubans say
back-and-forth moves and the overall slow pace of reform have shown the
difficulty of modernizing a Soviet-era bureaucracy controlled by hundreds of
thousands of civil servants who would be threatened by a transition into a
market economy, a difficulty Castro’s successor will also face.
“No
one dares to disobey Raul to his face. They quietly don’t get things done and
search for ways to cover their backs so no one can accuse them of not getting
things done,” Padron said.
one dares to disobey Raul to his face. They quietly don’t get things done and
search for ways to cover their backs so no one can accuse them of not getting
things done,” Padron said.
Cuba’s
next president also must find a way to make its economy grow while maintaining
social stability and satisfying the millions of Cubans who depend on the state
and a shrinking list of subsidized essentials sold in Cuban pesos for their
survival. While Cuba sees Russia as one of its closest allies, Cuba’s leaders
are desperate to prevent the sort of shock transition to capitalism that marked
the end of the Soviet Union.
next president also must find a way to make its economy grow while maintaining
social stability and satisfying the millions of Cubans who depend on the state
and a shrinking list of subsidized essentials sold in Cuban pesos for their
survival. While Cuba sees Russia as one of its closest allies, Cuba’s leaders
are desperate to prevent the sort of shock transition to capitalism that marked
the end of the Soviet Union.
“I
can’t eat, dress myself and live on $20 a month,” said Adela Arpajon, a
54-year-old accountant for the Communist Party. “I either eat or buy
clothes. It’s hard, but that’s the way it is.”
can’t eat, dress myself and live on $20 a month,” said Adela Arpajon, a
54-year-old accountant for the Communist Party. “I either eat or buy
clothes. It’s hard, but that’s the way it is.”
Wariness
of disruption is exacerbated by Cuba’s increasing economic dependence on the
Cuban emigres and exiles once seen by the Communist government as a threat to
its survival.
of disruption is exacerbated by Cuba’s increasing economic dependence on the
Cuban emigres and exiles once seen by the Communist government as a threat to
its survival.
As part
of his broader immigration reforms, Raul Castro changed Cuba’s relationship with
its diaspora by allowing Cubans to maintain their rights to own property and
receive social benefits as long as they return once every two years. That
change fueled the growth of a new class of Cubans who earn money overseas but
invest at home and are responsible for hundreds of millions, if not billions,
of dollars in small-scale investment on the island in recent years.
of his broader immigration reforms, Raul Castro changed Cuba’s relationship with
its diaspora by allowing Cubans to maintain their rights to own property and
receive social benefits as long as they return once every two years. That
change fueled the growth of a new class of Cubans who earn money overseas but
invest at home and are responsible for hundreds of millions, if not billions,
of dollars in small-scale investment on the island in recent years.
More than
20,000 Cuban emigres have “repatriated” and regained their property
rights since the emigration reforms, according to Cuban figures. Still, the
flow of emigres back to Cuba is swamped by the outward flood of Cubans
unleashed by Castro’s elimination of the hated exit permit known as the
“white card.” According to U.S. Homeland Security statistics, the
United States admitted 463,502 Cubans between 2006 and 2016, with tens of
thousands more heading to countries such as Spain and Ecuador.
20,000 Cuban emigres have “repatriated” and regained their property
rights since the emigration reforms, according to Cuban figures. Still, the
flow of emigres back to Cuba is swamped by the outward flood of Cubans
unleashed by Castro’s elimination of the hated exit permit known as the
“white card.” According to U.S. Homeland Security statistics, the
United States admitted 463,502 Cubans between 2006 and 2016, with tens of
thousands more heading to countries such as Spain and Ecuador.
“I
don’t think people have realized how momentous that is in terms of for the first
time having circular migration,” said Lisandro Perez, an expert on the
Cuban diaspora at New York’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “They
take back things, they finance private restaurants. It’s a totally different
ballgame.”
don’t think people have realized how momentous that is in terms of for the first
time having circular migration,” said Lisandro Perez, an expert on the
Cuban diaspora at New York’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice. “They
take back things, they finance private restaurants. It’s a totally different
ballgame.”
Castro’s
successor will have to manage the delicate relationship with Cuba’s prosperous
exiles at a time when relations with the U.S. have dropped from an
unprecedented high under President Barack Obama to a deep low under President
Donald Trump.
successor will have to manage the delicate relationship with Cuba’s prosperous
exiles at a time when relations with the U.S. have dropped from an
unprecedented high under President Barack Obama to a deep low under President
Donald Trump.
For
Reinaldo Taladrid, a popular commentator on state television, tensions with the
U.S. will serve as a brake on any reforms sought by Raul Castro’s successor.
Reinaldo Taladrid, a popular commentator on state television, tensions with the
U.S. will serve as a brake on any reforms sought by Raul Castro’s successor.
“While
there’s a sense of a state of siege, there’s an instinct of self-preservation
that doesn’t have anything to do with politics. It’s the human instinct for
self-preservation. You have the world’s most powerful state, the most powerful
government in the history of humanity that has regime change in Cuba as its
official policy,” Taladrid said. “While that’s true this little, poor
country’s government will have a siege mentality, and it’s logical to have
it.”
there’s a sense of a state of siege, there’s an instinct of self-preservation
that doesn’t have anything to do with politics. It’s the human instinct for
self-preservation. You have the world’s most powerful state, the most powerful
government in the history of humanity that has regime change in Cuba as its
official policy,” Taladrid said. “While that’s true this little, poor
country’s government will have a siege mentality, and it’s logical to have
it.”
