Iran votes: Here’s the break down
by Pepe Escobar, RT, February 25, 2016.
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Pepe Escobar Пепе Эскобар
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elections this week are crucial as they will determine whether the
Persian-style controlled opening conducted by President Hassan Rouhani –
and his Foreign Minister Javad Zarif – will ensure continuity,
supported by a favorable Majlis (Parliament).
president [Mohammad] Khatami, and the immensely controversial
president [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad; parliamentary elections for their part
pit an array of factions involved in complex alliances virtually
opaque to outside observers.
At stake this time around are the business fruits to be collected
after the Vienna nuclear deal and the end of the UN and EU sanctions
(significant US sanctions remain); the progressive integration of Iran
into the China-driven New Silk Roads; Iran’s strategy to recover market
share in the global oil trade, coupled with the immense investment
necessary to upgrade its energy industry; deals after deals clinched
with European – not to mention Asian – partners; the full, and not
partial re-entry of Iran into global consumer markets; and last but not
least a shot at reelection for Rouhani in the next presidential
elections.
So forget about proverbially pathetic Western disinformation,
especially the usual US neocon and Zionist demonization of all things
Iran. Here’s what you need to watch to keep these elections in
perspective.
Is turnout important?
Yes. In the 2012 parliamentary elections, it was 64 percent. The more the Rouhani system is endorsed by more people, the better.
How do the elections work?
“Lists” are the name of the game. Pop characters head those
lists. Voters make their choices largely based on the appeal of the
list leader.
Will there be reformist candidates?
Some – although quite a few among the most popular were banned. Top
reformist and former president Khatami is banned from official Iranian
media. But he made a crucial video exhorting voters to go for the reformist list.
What’s the deal in Tehran?
Massive; no less than 1121 candidates fighting for 30 parliamentary seats.
Who are the favorites?
Among the reformists, Mohammad Reza Aref, Khatami’s vice president
from 2001 to 2005. He did not contest the 2013 presidential elections –
following Khatami’s suggestion – and that opened the way for Rouhani’s
victory. He’s essentially a moderate. There’s also Kazem Jalali,
member of a conservative faction, the Followers of the Leadership.
Is there some sort of anti-hardliners united front?
Definitely. It groups the reformists; all kinds of supporters of
Rouhani and Zarif; the moderate conservatives (and those include
powerful parliament speaker Ali Larijani; and the above-mentioned
Followers of the Leadership.
What about the conservatives?
Keep an eye on Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, top adviser to Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; his daughter is the wife of Khamenei’s son
Mojtaba; he leads the 30 candidate Tehran conservative list.
Are they all conservatives?
Not really. Their list features hardliners – such as hojattoleslam
Morteza Agha-Tehrani (a former adviser to Ahmadinejad) and Ismail
Kowsari (a key member of the National Security and Foreign Policy
Commission). Key fact; they don’t like Rouhani’s opening one bit.
Will these elections change Rouhani’s foreign policy?
No.
Will they interfere with the Vienna nuclear deal?
No.
So what’s the really big deal?
The elections for the Assembly of Experts – parallel to the parliamentary elections.
Why?
Because the 88 members of the Assembly of Experts, according to the
Iranian constitution, choose the next Supreme Leader. Khamenei is 76,
his health has improved, but there’s a huge chance this Assembly –
which will last for 8 years – will end up choosing the next leader.
Who’s running?
There’s one 16-member reformist list led by the notorious Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, a.k.a. “The Shark”, named “People’s Experts.” They include the President himself – Rouhani – as well as former Rouhani Intelligence Minister Seyed Mahmoud Alavi.
Who’s out?
Another big deal; Hassan Khomeini, grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini.
He’s very popular in Iran. Reasons for his exclusion are quite murky.
What’s intriguing is that campaign posters for this list feature
Rafsanjani, Khamenei, Rouhani and Hassan Khomeini praying together; in
Iranian terms, that’s like the Rolling Stones playing Satisfaction.
What about the conservatives?
Out in force. They have two lists – one of them presented by the key
Society of Seminar Teachers of Qom, very conservative clerics. What’s
relevant is that both lists are filled with top hardliners – such as
Chairman of the Guardian Council Ayatollah Jannati; the immensely
hardcore Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi; and the current head of the Assembly
and secretary of the Society of Seminary Teachers, Mohammad Yazdi. And
there’s even a third list.
What’s the low down then?
It’s a pitch battle between “The Shark” Rafsanjani and the
ultra-hardliners. It’s useful to remember that Rafsanjani – the closest
adviser to Ayatollah Khomeini – was crucial to elect Khamenei as
Supreme Leader. He already led the Assembly of Experts, from 2007 to
2011.
What if he hardliners win?
They will elect a hardliner as next Supreme Leader. Not good.
Rafsanjani, under the circumstances, is a more progressive choice,
considering he never demonized the Green Movement leaders and he openly
confronts the hardliners.
Has the Supreme Leader spoken?
No. He’s supposed to be the arbiter.
And what about the Revolutionary Guards?
They tend towards a hardliner; crucially, someone who will never waver when facing Washington, Tel Aviv and Riyadh.
Is this a crucial stop for Iran on its way to become the next big global success story?
Of course. But preferably, in the near future, enjoying a second
Rouhani term, and with a non-hardliner as the next Supreme Leader.
